Monday, May 27, 2013

Facebook is not a panacea for the world's problems. It is causing more!

I am no Luddite.  But, there is not a day that goes by without me wondering and worrying that this latest version of the Industrial Revolution might really be the job killer that Luddites have always feared.

Reading George Packer's essay in the New Yorker and this piece on Jaron Lanier in Salon add to my worries.  Here is what Packer writes in his blog, in a follow-up to his original piece:
life inside Silicon Valley can be a paradise (for its winners) of opportunity and reward. Meanwhile, life outside falls further and further behind. All those highly paid engineers, with their generous stock options and unheard-of buying power, aren’t making the Valley more equal—they’re making it less so. 
As one who grew up in the Valley, and as one who attended high school there, Packer is an insider as much as he is an outsider now.  He writes in his essay about the economic reality of the Silicon Valley, which is home to more than fifty billionaires and thousands of millionaires:
There are also record numbers of poor people, and the past two years have seen a twenty-per-cent rise in homelessness, largely because of the soaring cost of housing.  After decades in which the country has become less and less equal, Silicon Valley is one of the most unequal places in America.
This new and improved Digitial Economy, version 2.0, as opposed to the internet boom of the 1990s, is changing the economic and geographic landscape that doesn't seem to be getting the attention it deserves.  

Lanier arrives at this with an example:
“Here’s a current example of the challenge we face,” he writes in the book’s prelude: “At the height of its power, the photography company Kodak employed more than 140,000 people and was worth $28 billion. They even invented the first digital camera. But today Kodak is bankrupt, and the new face of digital photography has become Instagram. When Instagram was sold to Facebook for a billion dollars in 2012, it employed only 13 people. Where did all those jobs disappear? And what happened to the wealth that all those middle-class jobs created?”
Of course, this is not the first time I am blogging about such worries.  In a recent one, I referred to Twitter, which, Packer writes, threatened to move its headquarters away from San Francisco, and I wrote then:
At $10 billion, the company might still be quite a bargain.  For that kind of a valuation, Twitter employs only about 1,600 people.  And even that draws a remark as to whether that many are really needed!
@bill_gross What are 800 developers doing all day at a product that hardly changes? 800? That's like 80 Instagram-like Start-Ups. #wondering— Michael Hirschbrich (@MicHirschbrich) March 8, 2013
Jobs aren't being created directly, nor as multipliers, as they were in the past revolutions.  The result shows up geographically, as Packer notes:
San Francisco is becoming a city without a middle class.  Pockets of intense poverty, in districts like the Fillmore and the Tenderloin, are increasingly isolated within the general rise of exorbitantly priced housing.  
Lanier adds:
We kind of made a bargain, a social contract, in the 20th century that even if jobs were pleasant people could still get paid for them. Because otherwise we would have had a massive unemployment. And so to my mind, the right question to ask is, why are we abandoning that bargain that worked so well?
At Ramesh's post on Apple's tax avoidance, even when disagreeing, we both agreed on the need to rewrite the social contract.  A contract with the people on so many different levels.

Packer asks:
Why has a revolution that is supposed to be as historically important as the industrial revolution coincided with a period of broader economic decline?  I posed the question in one form or another to every one I talked to in the Bay Area. ... Few of them had given the topic much consideration.
Evgeny Morozov wants us to rethink technology:
a) What problems are worth tackling, and what problems look like problems only because we have technologies for solving them? 
b) Which of the “real” problems should be solved by governments and which ones by technology companies—given that it's technology companies that run much of this new infrastructure? What do we lose or gain once it's private technology companies that are tackling problems like climate change or obesity? 
c) If we do decide that, at least for some problems, technological fixes are OK and that private companies can be allowed to help with solving them, what should be the principles and values guiding problem-solving? Tech companies, like all companies, have a bias toward efficiency, but efficiency may not be the value to optimize in attempts to solve important public problems.
Yes, it is not merely about efficiency.  There is a lot more to humanity and life than efficiency alone.  How do we rethink technology in terms of the problems of the day and those we can anticipate in the future?  Why aren't we doing technology along those lines?  Packer's response is this:
It suddenly occurred to me that the hottest start-ups are solving all the problems of being twenty years old, with cash on hand, because that's who thinks them up.
That might be a tad too harsh, and exaggerated, yes.  But, there is also a great deal of truth in it.  Packer quotes a young entrepreneur on his colleagues:
"They actually think that Facebook is going to be the panacea for many of the world's problems.  It isn't cynicism--it's arrogance and ignorance."
If there is any student or one younger than me reading all these: you have been warned.
(Full disclosure: I use Facebook and Twitter, and use them a lot.)

4 comments:

Ramesh said...

I don't know George Packer and have never read his writing. But from what you describe, he appears to be a card carrying member of the loony left. Unemployment is the fault of all those tech entrepreneurs because they got rich. Indeed.

Of all the industries to berate on loss of employment, I am amazed that your chosen writers picked on technology. If ever there was an employment generating industry, it has to be information technology - your writers simply have to visit India to understand that. Code has to still be written , or at least significantly written, by humans. Twitter and Instagram are the absolute wrong examples to pick. SAP and Microsoft are more relevant examples. In any case comparing Kodak to Instagram is truly the sort of deluded comparisons the loony left makes. The right comparison for Kodak is really Apple or Samsung or any of the cellphone manufacturers and not Instagram. And that lot employ a lot more than 140,000 people.

The real trouble for these writers is that the jobs are not in the US, but in India. I can understand that for those geographically challenged men, everything other than the US is a different planet, but then, they should enroll in your course :)

Now that I have vented my spleen on the leftists (nothing gets my goat as much as the loony left ; not even the rabid right !!!!), I shall make a more rational point.

There is, of course, a huge employment problem - the number of jobs per unit of output is dramatically falling. This is mostly because of automation in manufacturing. But then employment as a whole, around the world is rising in huge numbers. The geographically challenged may not notice it, but that is happening on a staggering scale in China first and India second. Employment per unit of output will fall inevitably - it has happened right through history and the solution is to continue to raise output faster than the fall in per unit employment. Economic growth is the only solution. This is what the world has largely done through the last two centuries. It will continue to do so, but this is not going to be spread evenly around the world and therefore essays such as the ones you have quoted will continue to be written in the New Yorker.

Now that I have provoked you with a full throated rant, I shall sit back :):):)

Full discloure : I don't use either Facebook or Twitter or Instagram :)

Sriram Khé said...

AHEM ....
(that is me clearing my throat!)

There is a good chance that anything I would want to say, Andrew McAfee would have already said in the video that I have embedded in that post. If I remember correctly, you get my posts via the RSS feed, and the RSS drops the embedded videos sometimes. I highly recommend that you watch that short talk. He is the co-author of "Race Against the Machine."

After I published that post, in between my grading and my FB doodling, I was scanning through the Economist, and the Schumpeter column there is also on the same topic (http://t.co/9pj0Gkc3xn)
The column is essentially a review of "Race against the machine" and a recent report from McKinsey.

The column asks the same question that you and I are talking about here: "The question is whether the creation will be worth the destruction."

Even for countries like India, the demographic dividend could turn out to be a demographic liability because of the increasing power of the machines. It might turn out that India missed the employment bus of the 1990s and 2000s.

At this point,we are all, of course, merely reading the tea leaves and interpreting it. That is what I tell any interested student also--we do not have enough data to know for sure either way. But, I tell them that to appropriately prepare themselves, via education, for a possibility that the destruction (of jobs) might be more than what comes after. I.e., the future won't be anything like the job-creating revolution over the last two hundred years.

Now, I, too, fully expect economic growth in the future and lots of it. But, my tea leaves warn me that the growth will not have the employment multiplier that we would need. (btw, in my posts, I typically look at it only from an American perspective, unless I call out any other part of the world.)

This is really not any loony left issue at all. We are really at some interesting intersections. To quote from a popular 60s song, "There's something happening here What it is ain't exactly clear ..." when we are really, really old, we can compare notes on our respective arguments from this discussion in May of 2013 ;)

Ramesh said...

Will you kindly explain how you have this amazing maturity, good cheer and patience to argue rationally, not get provoked and be that masterful Prof ????? Here, I needle you with a provocative rant and instead of choice four letter words, I get a rational and beautifully considered response.

Yes, I read that Schumpeter column and yes I will watch the video now. But I just want to say that you set new standards in debate. If only the online world had much more of you, there will much progress forward.

Sriram Khé said...

Well ... all because of the confidence that you use that language partly in a tone of humor, while your overall goal is the same as mine--to get a better understanding of these issues ...