Wednesday, May 20, 2009

The Great Recession and unfounded optimism

Japan's economic output is shrinking so fast that .... well, I have no metaphors for this.

The Japanese gross domestic product shrank 15.2 percent on an annualized basis. It marked a fourth straight quarter of contraction and the biggest decline since Japan began keeping records in 1955.

It was also a deeper fall than during the last quarter of 2008, when the economy shrank a revised 14.4 percent on an annualized basis.
Of course, Japan's problems are not the same as our problems. Japan relies quite a bit on exports, and the global contraction does not help.

But, to me, this is yet another reason not to get all too optimistic with talks of green shoots.

I would, however, place my bets on economic growth in India--it is a continent of its own, and it relies very little on foreign trade--both imports and exports. Elections have delivered greater stability to the current policies. No wonder the stock market is shooting up and up there.

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